By Maia Machavariani, Dublin City University
Nursultan Nazarbayev is one of the few leaders among the countries of the former Soviet Union who has been dominating the political system of Kazakhstan since its independence, in December 1991. However, Nazarbayev is now 78 years old. The upcoming 2020 presidential elections have prompted heated discussion on his political legacy, raising questions on who might succeed him and whether his departure will result in political instability. In addition Kassym-Zhomart Tokayev, the Chairman of Kazakhstan’s Senate, mentioned that President Nursultan Nazarbayev might not run again in 2020, “Because he is a very wise man and absolutely reasonable that in 2020 we shall have presidential elections with other candidates, except President Nazarbayev”[1], although he later denied the statement.
Over the past two decades, Nazarbayev has been laying the institutional foundation of his regime and for its departure as a president, working to realize a smooth transition of power that would ensure regime stability and secure it from any influence from members of the country’s political elite. Since 2010, Nazarbayev attained the status of the ‘Leader of the Kazakh Nation’, which grants him lifelong immunity from prosecution and a broad set of powers after his resignations. He will be able to personally address the parliament on important issues and submit “initiatives on major issues of state construction, domestic and foreign policy and national security”.[2]
The most recent move towards securing his strong presence was the draft Law on the National Security Council in 2017, transforming the Security Council from a presidential consultative council into a constitutional body. Being appointed as a lifelong Chairman of the Council, Nazarbayev is authorized to instruct and delegate the government as well as the newly elected president in all “Important issues.” The latest, fourth amendment to the Constitution of Kazakhstan (passed in 2017) aimed at reducing the authorities of the President, redistribute the powers between the different branches of the government and strengthen the supervisory powers of the Parliament. This also sparked discussion around the future role of Nazarbayev and whether this move aimed at narrowing the formal scope of action for the future leader of the country.
Despite the growing speculations around succession for the last two decades, there is no obvious guess on who might succeed Nazarbayev. A number of people have been proposed as possible successors, both in Nazarbayev’s family as well as amongst the close circle and state apparatus. Among the most probable candidates are Nazarbayev’s daughter, Dariga Nazarbayeva, First Deputy Chairman of the National Security Committee Samat Abish and Chairman of the Samruk-Kazyna National Welfare Fund Akhmetzhan Yesimov. Second choice candidates are the speakers of both houses of parliament, Kassym-Zhomart Tokayev and Nurlan Nigmatulin, the head of the Presidential Administration of Kazakhstan, Adilbek Dzhaksybekov and the Chairman of the National Security Committee (NSC) Karim Massimov.[3]
Thus whether or not Nazarbayev runs for the next presidential elections in 2020, his recent appointment as a lifelong chairman of Kazakhstan’s Security Council may secure his supervisory role and influence over Kazakh politics and eventually introduce a successor who will run the country under his guidance. However, it is uncertain if the new leader can effectively secure the survival of the regime in case of a succession crisis and a possible power struggles between the elite after the first president of Kazakhstan is eventually gone.
References:
[1] Sorbello, P. (2018), “Nazarbayev Won’t Be Kazakhstan’s Next President…Or Will He?”The Diplomat, July 22. Available at: https://thediplomat.com/2018/06/nazarbayev-wont-be kazakhstans-next-president-or-will-he/ (Accessed Nov. 27.2018)
[2] Unit 3, The System of Government of the Republic of Kazakhstan” (2010) (Amendments to Constitutional Law of the Republic of Kazakhstan on Legislation Improvement in the sphere of ensuring activity of the First President of the Republic of Kazakhstan – the Leader of the Nation)https://en.tengrinews.kz/zakon/The_Parliament_of_the_Republic_of_Kazakhstan_/Constitutional_system_and_foundations_of_public_administration/id-Z100000289_/ (Accessed Nov. 15.2018)
[3] Chebotarev Andrei, (2018) Director of the Center for Contemporary Research “Alternative” www.Zona.kz “Does Nazarbayev has a successor?” Available on: https://zonakz.net/2018/07/02/est-li-u-nazarbaeva-preemnik/ (Accessed Nov 2, 2018)